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Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

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Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Mazy on Thu Feb 20 2014, 23:02

[
font=Georgia]PAN Thanks I put the story for you link in a new thread.
20 February 2014 Last updated at 11:23 ET
Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link
By Orysia Lutsevych Research fellow, Chatham House

The turmoil in Ukraine could threaten business interests and push the country's oligarchs to act
As Ukraine slides further toward catastrophe, its rich and mighty could play a key role to prevent further loss of life and put the country on the path to normalisation. Ukrainian oligarchs, who control great swathes of the country's economy and some 80-odd MPs from the ruling Party of Regions, could, counter-intuitively, become part of the solution.

In Ukraine the fusion of business and politics is more the rule than the exception. Holding high legislative and executive office provides access to a patronage system, protection for business, access to public finance, and immunity from prosecution.
For example, Ukraine's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, the main financial backer of the regime and a long-standing ally of President Viktor Yanukovych, was, until recently, a member of parliament. These privileges can yield substantial benefits.

Forbes.ua (the Ukrainian edition of the Forbes financial magazine) reports that Mr Akhmetov's businesses obtained 31% of all state tenders in January 2014.
Mr Yanukovych's son tops even this, having "won" 50% of state contracts in the same period. Mr Akhmetov controls a group of around 50 MPs in parliament.

Oligarch Rinat Akhmetov has been critical of the violence but is sticking with the president, at least for now
Mr Akhmetov has issued two statements condemning the violence and went out in his hometown of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine to talk to protesters outside his house. Meanwhile in London, protesters regularly rally near his luxury apartment at One Hyde Park Corner, the most expensive real estate in the city, in protest over his support for the authoritarian regime.
But Mr Akhmetov, despite a shaky history with Mr Yanukovych, is currently sticking with the president.

Other powerful business moguls inside the Party of Regions include Vadim Novinsky, the third-richest man in Ukraine, and Serhiy Tigipko, a former presidential candidate and minister of labour. As the violence took a new vicious circle this week, Mr Tigipko called for a new technocratic government to manoeuvre Ukraine out of the edge of economic and political default, and for international mediation of the crisis.

Finally, the so-called "Firtash group" in the parliament is led by gas magnate Dmytro Firtash and Vice-Prime Minister Igor Boyko. It includes around 30 MPs.

With smart sanctions, targeting financial assets and judicious visa bans, including on members of the Yanukovych family, the West could help to break the status quo in Ukraine”

A close ally of Mr Firtash, Serhiy Liovochkin, has resigned as Head of the Presidential Administration but remains an advisor to Mr Yanukovych. With the rising death toll this week, the gas magnate sent out a statement calling for peace, for the first time since the crisis.

Statements such as these are not enough to stop the bloodshed. Business groupings have hitherto shied away from taking responsibility and using their considerable influence in parliament to force a resolution.
Achilles' heel

This partly explains the escalation on the streets of Kiev this week, as parliament failed to vote in changes to the constitution.

Such a move would have limited the powers of the president and paved the way for elections. The protesters thus lost hope for a viable solution from the main legislative chamber.

The business clans are the Achilles' heels of the regime. With smart sanctions, targeting financial assets and judicious visa bans, including on members of the Yanukovych family, the West could help to break the status quo in Ukraine.

Big businesses need access to European markets. Further instability will devalue their assets.
Cutting off European oxygen would mean that the cost of doing business under a Yanukovych presidency would be too high. This is the main leverage that the EU and the US have.

If Mr Yanukovych fails to compromise, even under the pressure of sanctions, the business groups will still have a choice. But if they are hesitant, the EU and the US can help.

Under the pressure of sanctions, the business groups have enough members of parliament to form a new majority with the opposition and a smattering of independent MPs.

Fissures in the ruling Party of Regions have already started, with perhaps seven MPs leaving the faction and calling others to follow. If the oligarchs continue to hedge their bets, it will probably be their undoing - as the regime collapses with or without them.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Thu Feb 20 2014, 23:16

Thank you,Mazy! I really wasn't sure whether to leave this in the Ukraine category to carry on the awful story...or make it individual

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Fri Feb 21 2014, 15:15

New development in Ukraine!  Headline: Ukraine Agreement Signed By President Viktor Yanukovych And Opposition For Early Election

HuffPost

"The BBC reports Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and opposition leaders have signed an agreement to hold early elections:

The embattled Yanukovych announced the deal on the president's official website, writing:

   I declare that I initiate early presidential elections.

   I initiate the return of the Constitution of the year 2004 with redistribution of powers aside parliamentary republic.

The deal comes on the heels of a week of violent clashes between protesters and police that have left at least 77 dead and hundreds wounded in Kiev. Al Jazeera America reports, however, that while opposition leader Vitali Klitschko told German newspaper Bild the opposition would sign the deal, further talks were required to end the protests.

This is breaking news. Check back for more updates."

NOTE: Sorry, some of those quotes are actual tweets but the format is not reposting the same way as it appears at the link.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Fri Feb 21 2014, 15:27

Update: the latest BBCnews bulletin says that word has spread to the protesters and they are naturally unhappy that the President has refused to resign and his version of early elections means that he has until early December to instigate them!! Which reading between the the lines means that he has plenty of time to build his power base.......especially across the country nearer Russia.........

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Fri Feb 21 2014, 16:26

PAN...yes, this is no where near over, unfortunately for the people of Ukraine.  Did you read that one of the Ukrainian Olympians is opting out of competition today, in solidarity with the situation at home and she's going to leave and join the protest in the streets.  Lawrence O'Donnell of MSNBC had an interesting segment on his show last evening about her withdrawal from competition.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Fri Feb 21 2014, 17:17

Lighter, here's some breaking news on the BBC: Ukraine parliament votes to amend law in move that could see the release of jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.

Let's see. 'Could' is probably the word to watch.........

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Fri Feb 21 2014, 17:21

Oh, things are moving faster than I thought:

From AP twitter

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Atalante on Fri Feb 21 2014, 17:41

Europe stepped in. Better late than never. People died for nothing !

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Fri Feb 21 2014, 19:11

@ PAN....Breaking fast indeed!

HuffPost

Yulia Tymoshenko Freed? Ukraine Parliament Votes To Release Jailed Former Prime Minister

The Associate Press reports Ukraine's Parliament has voted to free jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

The Associated Press    (Tweet)    


BREAKING: Ukrainian parliament votes to allow release of jailed opposition figure Yulia Tymoshenko.


Tymoshenko, a vocal opposition leader and one of the faces of the 2004 Orange Revolution, was convicted in October 2011 after of exceeding her powers as prime minister. She was sentenced to seven years in prison. Her incarceration has led to strained ties between the former Soviet nation and the West, with both the United States and the European Union condemning the jailing as a "politically motivated" act.

As BBC News' Moscow correspondent Daniel Sandford points out, the vote to free Tymoshenko will still need to be signed into law by embattled President Viktor Yanukovych, Tymoshenko's principal rival.

@BBCDanielS  (tweet)


@rebeccakesby1 To be clear Parliament passed the law...still has to be signed by the President. Her no 1 enemy


The vote comes just hours after Yanukovych agreed to a deal with opposition leaders to hold early elections in hopes to stem the months-long protest in Kiev that have left at least 77 dead and hundreds injured this week.

This is breaking news. Check back for more updates.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Mazy on Fri Feb 21 2014, 20:06

This sounds very promising for Yulia keep praying. I have a tendency not to trust Yanukovych. xxx

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Nicky80 on Fri Feb 21 2014, 21:50

Thanks [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] for the article. Interesting how the wind changed now. After so many innocent people died I guess the government is thinking to do something to walk the other direction.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Fri Feb 21 2014, 22:17

BBC News reports that the protesters are truly disgusted that they have to continue to deal with the man who ordered the police to fire on them. Totally understandable!!

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Maggy on Fri Feb 21 2014, 22:40

I tried to catch up on some of the
latest news regarding this matter.

Yulia will be released.


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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Sat Feb 22 2014, 11:48

I know for sure that Vice President Joe Biden called Yanukovych and told him NOT to use the military against the people or there would be serious consequences. And the EU finally made a move too, so that may have in fact brought some reason back into the conversation.

Putin's arms aren't quite as long as they used to be and the rest of the world isn't going to stand by and watch this at his behest....I say that hoping against hope, that they won't let this go the way the last couple civil uprising like this have gone when thousands of civilians were hurt or killed in the process of getting their government back.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Sat Feb 22 2014, 11:57

BBC News reports that Parliament has voted to speed up the release of Yulia Tymoshenko - without the President's approval, since he is nowhere to be seen and has vacated his offices

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Joanna on Sat Feb 22 2014, 12:36

The power of the world wide video coverage must have played a big part in the backing off from the killings.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Sat Feb 22 2014, 12:46

The Protestors have seized the Capital offices:

Ukrainian Protesters Take Control Of Presidential Offices In Kiev


HuffPost

KIEV, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Protesters seized the Kiev office of President Viktor Yanukovich on Saturday and the opposition demanded a new election be held by May, as the pro-Russian leader's grip on power rapidly eroded following bloodshed in the capital.

Anti-government demonstrators entered Yanukovich's compound in the capital and were controlling the entrance, a Reuters reporter said at the scene. Security guards were present inside the building but were not trying to expel the protesters.

The president's residence outside the capital appeared to have been abandoned. Local media said protesters entered the sprawling grounds but it was unclear whether they were inside the building. Interfax said some security guards were present.

A security source said the president was still in Ukraine but was unable to confirm whether he was in Kiev.

Yanukovich, who enraged much of the population by turning away from the European Union to build closer ties with Russia three months ago, made sweeping concessions in a deal brokered by European diplomats on Friday after days of violence that killed 77 people, with central Kiev resembling a war zone.

But the deal, which called for early elections by the end of the year, was not enough to satisfy demonstrators, who want him out immediately after bloodshed that saw his police snipers shooting from rooftops.

Parliament has quickly acted to implement the deal, voting to restore a constitution that curbs the president's powers and to change the legal code possibly allowing his arch-adversary, jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, to go free.

The speaker of parliament, a Yanukovich loyalist, resigned and parliament on Saturday elected Oleksander Turchynov, a close ally of Tymoshenko, as his replacement.

Events were moving at a rapid pace that could see a decisive shift in the future of a country of 46 million people away from Moscow's orbit and closer to the West, although Ukraine is near bankruptcy and depends on Russian aid to pay its debt.

"Today he (Yanukovich) left the capital," opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko, a retired world heavyweight boxing champion, told an emergency session of parliament debating an opposition motion calling on the president to resign.

"Millions of Ukrainians see only one choice - early presidential and parliamentary elections." Klitschko then tweeted that an election should be held no later than May 25.

The senior security source said of Yanukovich: "Everything's ok with him ... He is in Ukraine." Asked whether the leader was in Kiev, the source replied: "I cannot say."

The UNIAN news agency cited Anna Herman, a lawmaker close to Yanukovich, as saying the president was in the northeastern city of Kharkiv.

At the president's office in the capital, Ostap Kryvdyk, who described himself as a protest commander, said some protesters had entered the offices but there was no looting.

"We will guard the building until the next president comes," he told Reuters. "Yanukovich will never be back."

In a sign of the quick transformation, the interior ministry responsible for the police appeared to swing behind the protests. It said it served "exclusively the Ukrainian people and fully shares their strong desire for speedy change."

Parliament voted on Friday to dismiss Interior Minister Vitaly Zakharchenko, a Yanukovich loyalist blamed by the opposition for the bloodshed.

The ministry urged citizens to unite "in the creation of a truly independent, democratic and just European country".

Yanukovich's broad concessions on Friday brought an end to 48 hours of violence that had turned the centre of Kiev into an inferno of blazing barricades. Without enough loyal police to restore order, the authorities resorted to placing snipers on rooftops who shot demonstrators in the head and neck.

The foreign ministers of France, Germany and Poland negotiated the concessions from Yanukovich, in what the Kremlin's envoy acknowledged as superior diplomacy.

"The EU representatives were in their own way trying to be useful, they started the talks," said Russian envoy Vladimir Lukin. "We joined the talks later, which wasn't very right. One should have agreed on the format of the talks right from the start," Lukin was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency.

Yanukovich, 63, a burly former Soviet regional transport official with two convictions for assault, did not smile during a signing ceremony at the presidential headquarters on Friday.


"YOU'LL ALL BE DEAD"

It took hard lobbying to persuade the opposition to accept the deal, and crowds in the streets made clear they were not satisfied with an arrangement that would leave Yanukovich in power. Video filmed outside a meeting room during a break in the talks showed Polish Foreign Minister Vladislaw Sikorski pleading with opposition delegates: "If you don't support this, you'll have martial law, you'll have the army, you'll all be dead."

Anti-government protesters remained encamped in Independence Square, known as the Maidan or "Euro-Maidan", through the night. They held aloft coffins of slain comrades and denounced opposition leaders for shaking Yanukovich's hand.

The week's violence was by far the worst to hit Ukraine since it emerged from the breakup of the Soviet Union.

With borders drawn up by Bolshevik commissars, Ukraine has faced an identity crisis since independence. It fuses territory that was mostly part of Russia since the Middle Ages with provinces that were parts of Poland and Austria until they were annexed by the Soviets in the 20th century.

In the country's east, most people speak Russian. In the west, most speak Ukrainian and many despise Moscow. Successive governments have sought closer relations with the European Union, but have been unable to wean their heavy Soviet-era industry from dependence on cheap Russian gas.

The past week saw the country on the verge of splitting, with central authority vanishing altogether in the west, where anti-Russian demonstrators seized government buildings and police fled. Deaths in the capital cost Yanukovich support of wealthy industrialists who previously backed him.

Yanukovich's fall would be a setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had made tying Ukraine into a Moscow-led Eurasian Union a cornerstone of his efforts to reunite as much as possible of the former Soviet Union.

Moscow had maintained that the protesters were terrorists and coup plotters, had denounced the West for supporting them and encouraged Yanukovich to crush them.

"This is not democracy, this is anarchy and chaos. And we'll see what comes out of it," Alexei Pushkov, head of Russia's State Duma foreign affairs committee and a member of Putin's United Russia party said after the deal was signed, though he said the pact would be positive if it ended violence.

Washington took a back seat in the final phase of negotiations, its absence noteworthy after a senior U.S. official was recorded using an expletive to disparage EU diplomacy on an unsecured telephone line last month.

U.S. President Barack Obama spoke to Putin by phone.

The outlook for Ukraine's economy is dire and Russia has not made clear whether it will still pay the promised $15 billion in aid. Ukraine cancelled a planned issue of 5-year Eurobonds worth $2 billion on Thursday. Kiev had hoped Russia would buy the bonds to help it stave off bankruptcy. (Additional reporting by Matt Robinson and Richard Balmforth; Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Sat Feb 22 2014, 12:49

Now let's pray that they send in people who will help RAISE the Ukraine and it's people, instead of EXPLOIT them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Sat Feb 22 2014, 13:01

Exactly, and it must be as clear as day now what the people want. I am very impressed with their resolve and commonsense to be honest.

And when you see the photos of Independence Square lit by mobile phones as a torch homage to their dead, it is both moving and mobilising, and nobody can be in any doubt as to their resolve which has been witnessed throughout the world


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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Sat Feb 22 2014, 13:10

This is the face of the movement itself, in this young woman activist who was working as a medic during the protest and was shot in the neck:

HuffPost

Ukraine Protester Olesya Zhukovska Tweeted After Being Shot In Neck

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — "I am dying," Olesya Zhukovska, a 21-year-old volunteer medic, wrote on Twitter, minutes after she got shot in the neck by a sniper's bullet as deadly clashes broke out in the center of the Ukrainian capital between protesters and police.

The tweet, accompanied by a photo of her clutching her bleeding neck and being led away under fire, went viral, as social media users around the world presumed she had died and shared their grief and anger.

But Zhukovska survived.

She has become a symbol of the three-month protest of President Viktor Yanukovych's government and a movement for closer ties with the West and human rights.

"We stand for freedom, for our rights, for social independence, for democracy, for freedom of speech, for everything, for a normal life," she told The Associated Press from her hospital bed in Kiev.

Zhukovska was injured Thursday morning, when government snipers began firing at protesters on Independence Square, known as Maidan, a bastion of the demonstrations that began in November to protest Yanukovych's decision to freeze ties with the European Union and seek financial aid from Russia.

Scores were killed and hundreds injured in clashes this week in the deadliest violence Ukraine has seen in modern history. In the course of the protests, police have deliberately targeted journalists wearing press identification and medics labeled with white crosses, prompting an international outcry.

Zhukovska, from a small town in western Ukraine, is a jolly paramedic with wavy dark hair and a birth mark on her right cheek. She has been volunteering as a nurse in the opposition's sprawling tent camp on the Maidan for nearly three months, sleeping in tents, in dormitories set up in several administrative buildings seized by protesters, and in the homes of sympathetic Kiev residents.

"I am apolitical, I am not member of any party. I am simply with the people," a weak and pale-looking Zhukovska, her neck bandaged, told the AP. "I couldn't watch this on TV. I had to be with the people."

She said she was shot as she walked around the camp with several friends. She became disoriented and thought that a grenade had exploded near her.

"And then they told me: 'Sweetheart, a sniper has shot you,'" Zhukovska recalled. "Then I looked at my hands and they were covered in blood, and I said, that's it, I am dying."

One photo making the rounds on social media shows Zhukovska looking shocked, her eyes closed, clutching her bleeding neck and being led away by activists. As soon as she was taken to an ambulance, she said, she grabbed her phone and with fingers covered with blood, she tapped out "I am dying," on her Vkontakte account, the local equivalent of Facebook. It is also linked to her Twitter page. Then, a doctor in the ambulance took the phone away.

Soon, Twitter exploded with expressions of sorrow and rage, as many users feared she was dead. As of Friday night, Zhukovska's post has generated more than 6,200 retweets. After hours of agonized waiting Thursday night, Oleh Musiy, a top medic for the protesters, told AP that Zhukovska had survived. Mykola Dyomin, head doctor at Hospital No. 17, where Zhukovska was admitted, said she has undergone surgery and should be discharged in about a week.

"I am alive! Thank you to all those who are praying and supporting me," she tweeted Friday. "I am in the hospital; my condition is stable for now!"

Health Minister Raisa Bohatyryova, a top Yanukovych ally, visited the hospital where Zhukovska and scores of other injured activists were being treated Friday. She condemned violence against Zhukovska and said the government was not to blame.

"Everything should be investigated," she told reporters. "But if today, we as society, start assigning grades to everyone or passing personal judgments, it would be wrong, it wouldn't be safe."

Bohatyryova's words fell flat with one protester at the hospital, who shouted at her with his voice trembling with rage: "If only you knew, bitch, what I have lived through! I will never forgive you for what you did."

Zhukovska's spirit was unwavering.

"As soon as I get better, of course, I will go to the Maidan," she said.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Sat Feb 22 2014, 13:25

And here's another side to it. Unbelievably sad and incredibly moving - and thro it all her English is fantastic: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Carla97 on Sat Feb 22 2014, 13:35

Joanna wrote:The power of the world wide video coverage must have played a big part in the backing off from the killings.
 Thumbs up! 

No doubt about it.

So president escaped with the money. Both gone.
And new spokeman for parlament is Oleksandr Turchynov. Couldn´t find a "clean" name? Oh man, "Plus les choses changent, plus elles restent les mêmes." And I don´t mean his well documented views on same sex relationships "they are sodomy and perversions", which he says, but that he was close ally to Pavel lazarenko who sat 9 years in US prison. 100 dead and Ukranian should trust this man now?

Awful.

Putin is unpredictable and dangerous. But this time I think he is playing different game. After closing seremonies we will see nothing (earlier I said we would see tanks, I was wrong), no action from his side. I read last week´s report on commodities, and it had nothing to do with Ukraine or Russian (both are commodity driven countries) but he is not stupid. While world is watching Ukraine (S&P downgraded it just last week with bad outlook) He is not going there. He has been passive and will remain so. It´s not about petrochemicals or democracy (well pseudo-democracies which we call "free world" can be argued to be at best corporate plutocracies. ) it´s about money and more money is to be made elsewhere even in a relatively longer haul. Also he created rapidly growing, well doing, even wealthy middle class. They are supporting him. Can´t let those folks down.Country is rich and hedged, but individuals are not hedged against commodity price drop. Stocks are rallying but commodities have been tanking. Bad sign. Big risk. Unstability will immidiately arise if this rapidly growing group feels any step backwards. Bad memories, they have to be reminded things are better everytime they walk to the bank and see black and white it is so. No rhetoric or polemic will do it.

So marx my word but all we will see is Putin using economic or diplomatic channels in dealing with Ukraine. It is not his nr 1 priority as western media outlets have presented. It´s good 2nd maybe.

Friend of mine working on her doctoral thesis send me these, which kind of explains who is who and in what relations Smile Circles seem to be small.

G should make a movie out of it. Plot is thicker than any screewriter could write even if imagination really got better of them... Don´t cry for me argentina, Eva Peron type of thing Smile He could do it and I´d love to see it!

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Sat Feb 22 2014, 15:01

@Carla, thank you for your explanation. I'll check out those links later when I have time. It's ALWAYS about the money and who will be the heir to the lion's share! Doesn't matter what country you're talking about...power and money make the world go round!

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Sat Feb 22 2014, 15:27

@Carla, there was an interesting segment on this situation on MSNBC that I just watched on the Rachael Maddow show.  The moderator sitting in for Rachael and the editor from the Atlantic Washington gave a pretty good overview of what's happened in the past 24 hrs and what lies ahead.  I don't know if you can get it on the internet in your country but I'd like to hear your comments if you can view it and have the time.  It's hard to gage whether or not our journalists are getting the true picture and I'd like a different point of view.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by party animal - not! on Sat Feb 22 2014, 16:14

According to the BBC Yulia Tymoshenko has been released from jail.........

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Nicky80 on Sat Feb 22 2014, 17:01

Yep just saw live pictures on TV when she got released she was waiving out of the car to the people who were waiting for her.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Carla97 on Sat Feb 22 2014, 21:53

Lighterside thanks for the hint for MSNBC. Many vids and reports-good ones.
I have time (holiday) but I´m not any wiser LOL

But this listing can give some idea where to look for "news". Sure, independent news is a dying business model. But at the time being... Very Happy 

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Lighterside on Sat Feb 22 2014, 23:25

Thanks for the link Carla...that looks like a comprehensive site worth a bit of exploration.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Mazy on Sat Feb 22 2014, 23:35

I posted this here not long long after they voted to free her.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

Post by Carla97 on Wed Feb 26 2014, 14:16

Economic look and oligarchs:

Ukrainian banks are in crisis. Western banks piled into Ukraine in 2000 and after, expecting to profit from the spread between lending rates there and deposit rates in the west. Worked for a little while. Oligarchs who owned the local banks rang financial rings around them and extended billions of loans to their cronies pre-sale. None of them have been paid back.


Now, foreign banks took exits with very considerable losses. Burnt and disappointed they have been re -selling the Ukrainian banks, at what can be only described as, massive discounts back to the oligarchs (from whom they bought them in the first place). 
Anything goes, they just want to get out.

In the meantime, UAH hryvna deposit interest rates are about 19 %. Inflation is perhaps 9 %. Phenomenal real interest rates. Smaller banks are already failing to repay depositors.
The Ukrainian hryvna USD rate is now 9,15 : 1. (it was 8,17:1 just 2 months ago) Expect a freefall to 10,5-11 : 1 in the next few months.

In human language, collapse of Ukraine´s currency means two things. First, it will hit hard regular citizens, 46 million people, not only all the desired western goods are going to be more expensive, but hunger will be in charge.

Second, Ukrainian assets will be remarkable cheaper for EU and US corporations to buy. Russians won´t be interested, for obvious reasons. It is safer to invest elsewhere, like even in economically drained EU countries.

So what can be done?
Very little.  Sorry this is in french, but kind of hilarious thinking of the economic shape France is! "Pour la situation économique, (qu’ils se débrouillent!) la France peut accompagner le processus avec l’aide de l’Union européenne et du FMI, condition sine qua non comme l’a rappelé Laurent Fabius ce matin sur France 2: Pour éviter un défaut de paiement, l’Ukraine aurait besoin de 35 milliards de dollars via une possible conférence des donateurs, dont la Russie (y a pas de raison)."

French president Hollande has said US, EU and IMF should come up with 35 bn to "aid", "loan" Ukraine. What none of the media has pointed out is why 35 bn and who is going to receive it? Understandably so. 35 bn and more is Ukraine´s current debt to Russia. If it is not paid, country will default. Question is how interested are US and EU taxpayers to give money directly to Russia? (Most of it will go to Putin and little that is left will go to Isle of Man or such, who ever sits as a president in Ukraine then, personal account). Country´s way. Ukrainians won´t see one hryvna of it.

All of the Ukrainian governments have been insanely corrupt (in western world governments and institutions are corrupt or massively corrupt but they have other name for it: lobbying, nevertheless nomenclature, same thing, but way much lesser degree.) Tymoschenko is Yanukovych in skirt. Ukraine's new interior minister, Arsen Avakov was in the international wanted list of Interpol in 2012....huh huh.

Yes what can be said - wellcome investors!  Smile


Last edited by Carla97 on Wed Feb 26 2014, 14:42; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Wrong figure, corrected. :))

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Re: Ukraine Crisis: Oligarchs Are Yanukovych's Weakest Link

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